Life after lockdown – clues from other countries

As we continue to see early signs that coronavirus may be peaking in the UK, and people’s thoughts turn, albeit cautiously, to how the country may emerge from the current level of lockdown, it’s useful to consider what other countries – namely those who are further along ‘the curve’ and/or have been impacted less severely overall – have done as they begin to relax their measures.

Clearly every country’s specific circumstances are different, from population density to healthcare systems and demographic profiles, as are the initial approaches we’ve seen taken by national governments in tackling the spread of COVID-19, making it impossible to make like-for-like comparisons between any two countries. However there’s still significant merit in understanding the way other countries are approaching their respective ‘next phases’.

For example, in Denmark, Switzerland and Norway, the phased reopening of non-essential businesses is based on category, with all three sharing an initial focus on resuming education for younger children plus the subsequent reopening of personal service-based businesses such as hairdressers, tattooists and dentists (interesting given the level of social contact required in such industries) and other education providers. Danish businesses will be required to comply with bespoke health guidelines and social distancing rules depending on their sector, with a multi-sector partnership to be established to agree a responsible strategy. Switzerland’s initial reopening of selected businesses commences today as part of an announced three-part plan, in contrast to the UK Government’s seeming reluctance to give too much notice of when and how restrictions may be eased.

Elsewhere in Europe, Austria and Germany began their own respective phased reopening of businesses earlier in April, but instead of a sector-based approach they’re prioritising smaller shops first. Interestingly in Austria, where the first tranche of non-essential shops reopened from 14 April, the early signs are that many residents are continuing to largely stay at home and not visit these stores; a good indicator of the importance of focusing on consumer confidence and reassurance around public safety.

With that in mind it’s worth considering not only which businesses will be allowed to open, but also the measures that may need to be applied in order to make the ‘new normal’ – as Dominic Raab put it on the Andrew Marr show yesterday – practical and achievable.

For example, according to security firm Amberstone, towns and cities may need to limit the capacities of high streets. If the 2m social distancing guidance remains in place (be it a recommendation or a stricter regulation), you could conceivably need to base capacity on allowing circa 2.5sqm per person. Logic dictates that any such calculation for high streets would be extended to inside premises, although in reality this raises less practical questions and issues than the public realm, due to businesses having fixed entry and exit points.

For full social distancing measures, one-way pavement lanes and temporary footpath extensions may be required to manage the safe movement of pedestrians around town / city centres, with queuing areas outside individual businesses also needing consideration. New Zealand’s ‘Innovating Streets for People’ pilot fund is an interesting concept to help address some of these challenges, with over $7m allocated to pilot helping councils create more people-friendly spaces.

Of course a lot of the above will only be necessary if full social distancing is required, with a more partial approach likely to rely on the public observing social distancing without such rigid interventions and adaptations. Another unknown is how prescriptive the advice and regulations from central government will be in terms of maintaining social distancing, and therefore locally will councils and partner agencies be coming up with the solutions or ‘simply’ implementing them (my hunch says the former is more likely).

Another key consideration will be transport into, out of and around our towns and cities. For buses, the capacity on-board can be reduced (as is currently the case for Southampton’s operators), but queues at bus stops will also need to be managed. Likewise on the rail network both on-board and station management will need some thought; Denmark is dealing with this issue by both increasing the frequency of services and running more coaches per service.

Measures in town and city car parks may also be necessary, from closing every other space (i.e. for full social distancing) to a less restrictive request for users to simply not exit vehicles until clear to do so.

Office workers will also most probably see a gradual return to (something closer to) normal. In Denmark, where restrictions have began to be lifted, employers have been asked to maintain a focus on flexibility with regards to homeworking, online meetings, staggered hours etc.

From a GO! Southampton perspective, we’re keeping a close eye on national and international developments as well as having ongoing dialogue with the Council about what a phased reopening might look like in the BID area.

At this stage there are still more questions than answers, but the approaches taken in other countries certainly provide food for thought.

Rebecca Handley

Operations Director at GO! Southampton